Death by Lockdown
“More than 600 of the nation’s physicians sent a letter to President Trump this week [May 22] calling the coronavirus shutdowns a “mass casualty incident” with “exponentially growing negative health consequences” to millions of non COVID patients.“
One woman in WA had a hemorrhagic stroke and chose not to go to the hospital because she was so scared of the coronavirus. She died. 150,000 Americans PER MONTH have not had their cancer detected through routine screening because “non-essential” medical procedures are forbidden.
A research team from the Hoover Institute concluded that:
“Considering only the losses of life from missed health care and unemployment due solely to the lockdown policy, we conservatively estimate that the national lockdown is responsible for at least 700,000 lost years of life every month, or about 1.5 million so far – already far surpassing the COVID-19 total.”
The conclusions in the next section are bolded for readers who want to skip the math.
The team explains how they arrived at those numbers in the article so I won’t quote it all here. But let’s break down their results and apply them to WA state, shall we? The US pop is about 330 million right now, and WA state is about 7.7 million, or 2.34%. So according to their estimates, our state has lost 0.0234 * 700,000 lost years of life per month = 16,333 years of life per month of lockdown. We’ve been locked down for 4.5 months now, so using their numbers, that’s around 73,500 total years of life lost in WA because of the lockdown according to the Hoover Institute team.
Now let’s compare that to how many years of life have been lost due to THE GREAT AND TERRIBLE CORONAVIRUS. 54.5% of the deaths in this state have been male, 45.5% female. 51% of deaths have been 80+, 38% 60-79, 9% 40-59, and 2% 20-39 (see part 1). Life expectancy in 2018 for men was 78.5 and 82.7 for women. I know life expectancy is determined at birth, but we’ll give them a higher life expectancy than they were born with to give the virus a little extra credit. All this data comes from the same sources used to make the graphs in part 1.
Ok, so out of the 1,564 “probable” Covid deaths in this state so far, 711 have been female and 853 male. Let’s just assume that the age distributions of deaths are the same for men and women for the sake of simplicity, and we’ll use the center of the age ranges to make our estimates. Men first:
853 * 51% = 435 men over 80 have died. Since they already beat the life expectancy, let’s just assume they each would’ve lived another 7 years (a guess, but generous). That’s 3,045 years of life lost.
853 * 38% = 324 70-year-olds have died. They would’ve lived an average of 8.5 years each to reach life expectancy so that’s another 2,754 years of life lost.
853 * 9% = 77 50-year-olds have died, they would’ve lived an average of 28.5 years so that’s 2,194 years of life lost.
853 * 2% = 17 30-year-olds have died, they would’ve lived an average 48.5 years so that’s another 824.5
Total male years of life lost: 3,045 + 2,754 + 2,194 + 824.5 = 8,817.5 years of life lost.
Women:
711 * 51% = 362 women over 80 have died. Giving them the same chances as the men (7 year lifespan), that’s 2,538 years of life
711 * 38% = 270 70-year-olds have died, they would’ve lasted another (average) 12.7 years so that’s 3,431 years of life
711 * 9% = 64 50-year-olds died, they would’ve made it another 32.7 years, so that’s 2,092.8 years
711 * 2% = 14 30-year-olds have died, they would’ve lived ~52.7 years each so that’s 737.8 years of life
Total female years of life lost: 2,538 + 3,431 + 2,092.8 + 737.8 = 8,799.6 years of life lost
Total men + women = 8,817.5 + 8,799.6 = 17,617.1 years of life lost in WA due to the virus. Compared to 73,500 lost due to the lockdown. That means according to one analysis, the lockdown has been over 4x as destructive as the virus, NOT INCLUDING generational poverty, depression, divorces, domestic violence, and all other kinds of lowered quality of life that comes from economic problems, foreclosure, and loss of employment. And that’s using their skewed death count and very generous life expectancy numbers. If you remove all the gunshot wounds and “probable” deaths that didn’t even test positive the lockdown becomes even more destructive by comparison.
I know those numbers were very rough, and I tried to be conservative, so for a moment let’s just assume that the estimates by the Hoover Institute team were way off base and 4x too high. That means that starting the first week of August the lockdown will begin to dramatically outpace the virus in terms of destruction of human health and happiness. That might be the best case scenario. And that dumb asshole Inslee has said there is no end in sight.
Here’s another “deaths of despair” estimate:
“Lower bound. If the unemployment rate increases by 5 points as a result of the various lockdowns, then 294,170 additional lives will be lost, not from coronavirus, but from deaths of despair.
Mid-range. If the unemployment rate increases by 16.5 points (as predicted by Treasury Secretary Mnuchin), then 970,761 additional lives will be lost to deaths of despair.
Upper bound. And if the unemployment rate increases by 10-fold — which is what we are already seeing in several states — then 1,853,271 lives will be lost to deaths of despair from government orders to lock down, shut down, and shelter in place.”
Blindly applying those numbers to WA (which is 2.3% of the US pop) we would get 6,863, 22,651, and 43,243 deaths due to the lockdown (spread over a multi-year period). That’s roughly 4-29x as many deaths from the lockdown as have died so far from the virus according to the second analysis. That’s TERRIBLE.
Real Consequences
Here are some examples of real consequences being suffered by real Americans, right now, because of the lockdowns.
“…up to 85% of independent restaurants are at risk of closing by the end of the year”
“…the line for the food pantry often starts forming well before dawn and is not showing any signs of letting up.
“…the line was already snaking around several city blocks, with socially distanced gaps, while individuals or families — with children in tow or in strollers — found spots of shade in the sidewalk on a morning that was already oppressively hot and humid. The line shuffled along quietly, with people wearing masks and carrying reusable bags or backpacks for the food.”
This doctor reads stories people send her of the ways the lockdowns and mandates have impacted them and their families. Put it on in the background and listen to a few, they bring home the reality of what’s happening:
https://youtu.be/fBkKAVfiaIA?t=678
https://youtu.be/MtpLJzXjGQc?t=363
https://youtu.be/_ec9jdA0ziQ?t=116
https://youtu.be/ibo7fnyq6_g?t=134
All this for a virus that has been the sole cause of death for a grand total of 8,275 people in the US (see part 2), almost all of whom were old and already sick. Completely nonsensical fact-free hysteria. See part 12 for clues into what’s really going on.
Children
“Center for Disease Control Director Robert Redfield said in a Buck Institute webinar that suicides and drug overdoses have surpassed the death rate for COVID-19 among high school students. Redfield argued that lockdowns and lack of public schooling constituted a disproportionally negative impact on young peoples’ mental health.”
Unicef warns the lockdowns could kill nearly 1.2 million children and 57,000 mothers worldwide in the next six months:
“Indiscriminate lockdown measures do not have an optimal effect on the virus,” he told The Telegraph. “If you’re asking families to stay at home in one room in a slum, without food or water, that won’t limit virus transmission.”
See parts 1 and 2 for the nearly nonexistent child mortality rates. Does anyone still want to claim shutting down schools was good for kids?
Don’t touch that dial, there’s more on the lockdowns in Part 10 – The Lockdowns (Part 2)